Systemic Changes Needed to Triple Renewables by 2030

The latest IRENA data indicates that 2023 set a new benchmark in renewable power deployment, adding 473 GW to the global energy mix.

Solar energy accounted for a booming 73% of this growth and is the only renewable energy source on track to meet the tripling renewable power capacity target.

Global data indicates positive trends in renewable power expansion and the record annual deployment of 473 GW in 2023 is timely.

However, despite record additions, progress in the energy transition is insufficient and its trajectory is markedly off course. The 2023 record must more than double to reach almost 1100 GW additions every year.

The current projections for the remaining years of this decade suggest that without urgent policy interventions, the tripling target will not be achieved.

The achievement in renewable power growth is not equitably distributed across the world, leaving many countries cut off from the benefits of energy transitions.

Asia was leading once again, growing by 20.1% to reach 1 961 GW. The region’s growth is still driven by China, which added its renewable power capacity by a tremendous 85%. Africa, although continued to grow steadily, paled in comparison with an increase of 4.6%, reaching a total capacity of 62 GW.

Other regions that saw significant expansion were the Middle East at 16.6% increase and Oceania at 9.4% increase. The G7 countries as a group increased by 7.6%, adding 69.4 GW last year. The G20 nations on the other hand increased their capacity by 15.0%, reaching 3084 GW by 2023.

Overall, an additional 7.2 TW of renewable power must be deployed globally to reach the required 11 TW by 2030.

IRENA’s World Energy Transitions Outlook shows that the G20 members alone would need to grow its renewable power capacity from less than 3 TW in 2022 to 9.4 TW by 2030, accounting for more than 80% of the global total.

The commitments made as of October 2023 in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement are less than half of that required to deliver on the global commitment to triple renewable power capacity, whilst those made in national energy plans and policies fall short by some 30%.

Rising financing costs, supply chain issues in consequence of multiple crises, and other barriers are broadly affecting the renewables industry.

The wind sector, especially, has faced setbacks. The auctions continue to focus too narrowly on price reduction and thereby miss opportunities to fortify supply chains, increase resilience against price fluctuations and reduce wholesale electricity supply costs with renewable power that is cheaper than fossil fuels.

The offshore wind sector is yet to achieve full competitiveness and still depends on policy makers to develop robust, competitive regional supply chains. These new challenges must be addressed.

Road transport is the subsector with the highest potential for electrification. Under IRENA's 1.5°C Scenario, the electrification rate in the global transport sector would rise to almost 7% by 2030.

This indicates that the current battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) stock needs to increase from around 40 million today to 360 million by 2030.

Successful launches of new EV models, financial incentives and improving charging infrastructure have been strong drivers for the sector but this target cannot be achieved at the current growth rates.

A tripling of renewable energy capacity will require conditions conducive to accelerated progress.The establishment of supporting infrastructure, robust policy frameworks and the development of institutional and human capacities are key enablers of the accelerated transition.

In addition, international co-operation and scaling up finance for developing countries is a key priority. Structural changes, notably the reform of multilateral finance mechanisms, are essential to effectively support energy transition efforts and local value creation in developing countries.

Increased international support is vital for a just transition. The developing countries face specific challenges such as the prohibitively high cost of capital and their inability to attract private investment.

The strategic use of public finance will be essential to attract investment at scale to deliver inclusive energy transitions that bring socio-economic benefits to all.

Prioritising fair and equitable development in the Global South is crucial. Therefore, support policies for industrialization and local value creation must be developed.

The increased renewable energy use must be coupled with a corresponding decline in fossil fuel reliance to meet the 1.5°C climate goal.

In 2023, developing countries accounted for just over half of global energy transition related investments.

The government support and investment trends must change rapidly to make the COP28 commitment to transition away from fossil fuels a reality. IRENA stands ready to support countries in their transitions to a sustainable energy future.